How might a decision change if the future develops differently from what you expect? Build scenarios for a planning question from your organisation or a course case and compare your options. Define early indicators to show which developments to monitor and when to revisit the decision.
Work on a planning decision from your organisation or the course case. Describe possible developments, compare their consequences for your options and decide what changes to monitor. Use a second scenario axis for another uncertainty when it changes the decision.
In the case, future demand is uncertain. Compare a permanent capacity expansion with capacity rented for a limited period under high and low demand. Your workbook records the assumptions, observation sources and a measurable trigger for revisiting the decision.
What you will work on
Define a management question and its decision-relevant uncertainties
Compare options against distinct scenarios
Compare fixed and rented capacity under changing demand
Who it is for
Strategy leads
Risk managers
Business-unit leaders making planning decisions
Topics
Decision questions and planning horizons
Uncertainty, assumptions and evidenced trends
Coherent scenarios rather than forecasts
Robust and conditional options
Early indicators and decision triggers
Your result
Your scenario workbook connects possible developments with options. Observation sources and triggers show when to revisit the decision.
Prerequisites
Experience with an organisational planning question. For your own case, you need authorised information about options and constraints. A course case is available when no authorised information is available.
Format and approach
Planned as four to five hours of self-paced study with an individual matrix and a worked counter-case.
A component is in stock for only eight more weeks. A second supplier needs twelve weeks to qualify and sources its input from the same region. Assess what action is needed before a potential shortage and whether the substitute actually reduces the dependency.
Which suppliers and inputs are essential to your most important services? You examine those dependencies and decide where alternatives or stock are needed. The result is a list of the most critical dependencies and options for continuing when a supplier fails.
Review an AI-supported analysis before it informs a management decision. Check its claims against source data, examine assumptions and counterarguments, and prepare your own recommendation with outstanding questions.