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Advanced · Self-paced learning

Scenario Planning and Decisions Under Uncertainty

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How might a decision change if the future develops differently from what you expect? Build scenarios for a planning question from your organisation or a course case and compare your options. Define early indicators to show which developments to monitor and when to revisit the decision.

Work on a planning decision from your organisation or the course case. Describe possible developments, compare their consequences for your options and decide what changes to monitor. Use a second scenario axis for another uncertainty when it changes the decision.

In the case, future demand is uncertain. Compare a permanent capacity expansion with capacity rented for a limited period under high and low demand. Your workbook records the assumptions, observation sources and a measurable trigger for revisiting the decision.

What you will work on

  • Define a management question and its decision-relevant uncertainties
  • Compare options against distinct scenarios
  • Compare fixed and rented capacity under changing demand

Who it is for

  • Strategy leads
  • Risk managers
  • Business-unit leaders making planning decisions

Topics

  • Decision questions and planning horizons
  • Uncertainty, assumptions and evidenced trends
  • Coherent scenarios rather than forecasts
  • Robust and conditional options
  • Early indicators and decision triggers

Your result

Your scenario workbook connects possible developments with options. Observation sources and triggers show when to revisit the decision.

Prerequisites

Experience with an organisational planning question. For your own case, you need authorised information about options and constraints. A course case is available when no authorised information is available.

Format and approach

Planned as four to five hours of self-paced study with an individual matrix and a worked counter-case.

Planned learning time: 4–5 hours

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